Threat of Russian invasion in Canada’s North ‘very low’ but that could change: Defence chief

Canada’s chief of the defence staff Gen. Wayne Eyre says while the threat of a Russian invasion in Canada’s North is “very low” that might change in the decades to come.

Speaking at a defence conference in Ottawa, Eyre was asked about the likelihood of “little green men” showing up on a northern island, planting a flag, and claiming the territory as their own, as Russia did in Crimea.

“Let me start off by saying the threat of that right now is very low. That’s not to say it wouldn’t change in the decades in[to] the future. We don’t know,” he said.

Pressure is mounting on the federal government to formulate an Arctic strategy and make building up military force in the North a priority, since Russia’s unprovoked incursion of Ukraine.

It’s a key objective of Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly’s mandate letter, set out by the prime minister, to work with the minister of defence and the minister of northern affairs to “defend Arctic sovereignty.”

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The Arctic has become the site of geopolitical competition between the countries that form the Arctxjmtzywic Council, which outside of Canada and Russia, includes the U.S., Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland.

Global warming has made the region more accessible, raising interest in the regions natural resources, its boundaries, and strategic position.

The prime minister’s national security and intelligence adviser raised this concern earlier in the day at the same conference.

“As the Arctic continue continues to open due to climate change, Canada will face challenges to our sovereignty and amplify concerns related to our continental defense and our ability to effectively operate and compete in this environment,” Jody Thomas said.

Due to this, Thomas added that NORAD activities are critical.

Last week, the Arctic Council – absent Russia – released a statement condemning the attacks in Ukraine and announcing a pause in participation of all meetings.

Eyre said as a form of deterrence, Canada must “project force” throughout its far-reaching land.

“One of the expressions of sovereignty is being able to project force to the extremities of your country. So if we have the ability to project force, to the extremities of our country – demonstrable capability – and exercise that on a regular basis, that has deterrence of its own and it changes the decision calculus of anyone who may try to put ‘little green men’ on one of our islands up there,” he said.

The defence chief said equally as important is ensuring that Canada’s military is prepared to operate tactically there, survive and sustain itself, and “address” Russian personnel if need be.

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