Economist: There's 'absolutely' no sign pay hikes will slow anytime soon

The labor market is as tight as ever, and employers are pulling out all the stops to get workers in the door by offering signing bonuses and higher pay.

"We have seen no indication that these wage increases will slow down," says Rucha Vankudre, a senior economist at Emsi Burning Glass, a labor market analytics firm. "What else can [employers] do? We'll have to see. They've done the things we've expected them to do at increasing rates, but what's next?"

Everyone has their eye>Job-switchers are seeing the biggest raises

Companies are banking>Paychecks are being eaten by inflation

But while wages rose 4.7% in December from a year prior, according to the Labor Department, workers' paychecks are being eaten up by rising inflation. Consumer prices reached a 40-year high in December, when the consumer price index (which measures the cost of goods and services) showed a 7% jump year-over-year.

A lot of factors contribute to inflation, like rising costs of labor and materials, and when demand outpaces supply. Hetrick says that when businesses give raises to in-demand workers like in food service, retail and manufacturing jobs, they're going to pass>Raises alone can't fix the talent shortage

More money alone won't solve the problem of workers being in short supply.

There are nearly two open jobs for every person looking for one, according to the Labor Department's latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover report. Roughly 6.3 million people were hired into new jobs in December, out of a total of 10.9 million job openings, leaving 4.6 million roles unfilled.

"The main problem is that increased wages are not getting people who are out of the labor force back in, just paying people who are already working more," Hetrick says. "That's causing a disruptive musical chairs game of resignations and hiring."

The overall unemployment rate dropped to 3.9% in December but spiked for Black workers, rising to 7.1% from 6.5%. This can be attributed to both job losses (Black workers disproportionately hold jobs vulnerable to pandemic conditions) and labor force entries (where Black workers re-enter the workforce but continue to face discrimination in hiring).

And there were still 2.9 million fewer people in the workforce compared with February 2020 before the pandemic hit the U.S.

Throughout the pandemic many workers, especially women and caregivers, have been unable to rejoin the labor force due to ongoing child-care challenges and health concerns over the virus. Advocates and legislators have called for a more targeted approach to get people back into the workforce, especially through more flexible work options like paid sick leave, telework arrangements, non-traditional hours and caregiving backup.